报告题目：Modeling Transmission Dynamics of Rabies in China

报告人： Shigui Ruan（阮士贵教授）

Department of Mathematics, University of Miami（美国迈阿密大学数学系）

Coral Gables, FL 33146, USA

 

摘要：Human rabies is one of the major public-health problems in China. The number of human rabies cases has increased dramatically in the last 15 years, partially due to the poor understanding of the transmission dynamics of rabies and the lack of effective control measures of the disease. In order to explore effective control and prevention measures we first propose a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of rabies in China. The model consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The model simulations agree with the human rabies data reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health. We then modify the model to include stray dogs into account and use the model to simulate the human rabies cases reported in Guangdong Province. Furthermore, we consider the seasonal effect on the transmission of rabies. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number in terms of the model parameters is performed and different control and prevention measures, such as culling and immunization of dogs, are compared. Finally we discuss how the movement of dogs impacts the spatial spread of rabies by constructing a reaction-diffusion model and a multi-patch model for dogs and humans. Our study demonstrates that (i) reducing dog birth rate and increasing dog immunization coverage rate are the most effective methods for controlling rabies in China; (ii) large scale culling of dogs can be replaced by immunization of them; (iii) enhancing public education and awareness about rabies and strengthening supervision of pupils and children in the summer and autumn are also effective strategies in controlling rabies; and (iv) management of dogs and dog movement is important to reduce and prevent spatial spread of rabies.